A study by consulting group Astérès, ordered by the French federation of beauty companies (FEBEA), indicates that French exports of scents and beauty items to the United States might decrease by 21% in 2026. This is attributed to the combined effect of fresh tariffs and a diminished dollar value. The association is advocating for a strategy to strengthen its competitive edge.
After enjoying several years of unprecedented export results, the French cosmetics and perfume sector considered itself immune to the diverse elements that have weakened much of France’s industrial backbone. However, the election of Donald Trump has thrown a potentially ruinous obstacle into what appeared to be a smooth operation.
Dual Blow
In 2024, French cosmetics exports to the United States neared 3 billion euros, with fragrances representing approximately half of the total. The U.S. served as the prime market for French cosmetics exports. Nonetheless, the trade regulations put in place by the Trump administration, along with the European Union’s subsequent acquiescence, have substantially altered the competitive landscape.
Levies that were previously non-existent or nearly so for numerous cosmetic goods sent to the United States increased to 15% at the close of July 2025. Further charges of 50% were applied to specific metal packaging parts on August 19, 2025. The purposeful devaluation of the dollar further intensified this tariff impact, effectively raising the price of European goods within the American market.
According to the consulting firm Astérès, this one-two punch could trigger a 21% drop in French cosmetics exports to the United States by 2026 — an equivalent of 620 million euros in lost income. Without countermeasures, this downturn could potentially result in the elimination of up to 2,700 direct and 8,200 indirect jobs.
Initial Impacts
A factual analysis of the most recent obtainable customs statistics reveals that French cosmetics exports to the United States saw a decline of 12.7% during the initial six months of 2025 — prior to the implementation of the novel customs duties. This reduction is largely credited to inventory modifications prompted by importers’ anticipations towards the end of 2024.
Considering the quarterly figures reported by listed firms such as Interparfums and L’Oréal following the enforcement of the tariff policies, the consequences on sales do not seem overwhelming. On the whole, sales have held steady or even risen. However, the currency rate impact stemming from the weaker dollar has nearly neutralized these gains.
Moreover, restructuring of value chains is certainly in progress. Leading organizations such as L’Oréal, The Estée Lauder Companies, and Procter & Gamble have conveyed intentions to optimize their supply chains to manufacture in closer proximity to their consumer markets. These initiatives will mainly affect the most price-sensitive articles, particularly within the makeup and hair care categories.
Strategy for Action
FEBEA, in response to what it sees as concerning future scenarios, is urging robust engagement regarding its Beauty Industry Package— a strategy designed to safeguard the competitiveness of the French cosmetics and perfume industry.
The plan seeks to: broaden exports through novel free trade agreements; reinforce the European market by streamlining the circulation of products created in Europe; simplify the regulatory environment; and more effectively confront unlawful activities, including brand imitation and unauthorized sales.
“We cannot remain idle. We urge European and French leaders to allocate the resources necessary to sustain our global dominance, while avoiding the addition of unnecessary complexities to our operational structure,” stated Emmanuel Guichard, General Delegate of FEBEA.
